Let's say you're in early position at a full table, mid-way through a Sit & Go tourney and the poker gods have sent you Ace-King suited with which to play the next hand. You dutifully raise 3 or 4 times the Big Blind, which causes all but two players to fold and they just call. The flop comes A, K, 7 rainbow (all different suits). You're first to act and you lead out with a pot-sized bet, which causes one player to fold. The other player thinks for more than a few seconds as you mutter to yourself: "Stick a fork in him, he's done", but then he raises you! Your first thought is that he has made an "information" raise to see if the kicker to his Ace is good. Well, it's not, so you re-raise him. His response is to go all-in. Now what?
This could be either a very sophisticated bluff or your opponent has you beat. If it's a bluff, laying down your hand is a huge mistake and, it goes without saying (but I'll say it anyway), if he does have you beat, folding here is one of the great laydowns of your poker career. Geez, North or South. Black or White. Win or Lose. Not really much in between, is there? Sure, if you have the guy out-chipped you can call and still be in the match if he does have you beat, although you might be crippled. So, what can beat top two-pair at this point? Only one hand: Three-of-a-kind. Three Aces, three Kings or three 7s have an advantage over you, so if you can determine you're up against something other than those, life is simple again. In a cash game, it's an easy call. If he does have you beat, just reach in your pocket for more $$$. However, if losing the hand will cost you your tournament "life", it's not such an easy call.
If you were to go only by the mathematics of the situation, it's actually a good call to make. In a previous lesson, I pointed out that a pocket pair will catch a third card on the flop only about 11% of the time, so the likelihood you're up against a "set" is relatively small, especially when you're already holding two of the cards (A, K) that flopped. This is a good place to define the words set and Trips. In terms of Hold'em, a "set" is a pocket pair that has hit a third card on the board - the community cards of the hand. The term Trips means that you hold the third card of a pair that has flopped on the board. Obviously, a set is much stronger than Trips because there can be only one set of a certain rank (3s, 7s, Qs, etc.) in a hand, but there can be two sets of Trips in the same hand. Most of the time, detecting a set is much more difficult than detecting Trips, which is why we're talking about it here.
So now you're facing an all-in raise that basically has a 1-in-9 chance of being the hand that can beat you. When I encounter a situation like this, there's a checklist that I run through before I make my decision. Here it is:
1. Did I raise pre-flop? If the answer is yes, I then wonder if my opponent would stay in with a pocket pair. If the flop in our example were all low cards, I'd be less inclined to believe I was facing a set, because many - though heaven knows, not all - players will fold a "baby" pair like 2-2 to 5-5 after an opening raise from Early Position. In this case, the flop brought some face cards, so the probability that our opponent would just smooth-call our opening raise is possible. Honestly, I'd be surprised if our opponent didn't re-raise with A-A or K-K, but there are a lot of players who love to trap with a hand like that, so I probably shouldn't be very surprised.
2. Did I not raise before the flop? If I did not raise pre-flop, it's easier to believe I'm up against a set, but even there I still have some advantage on my opponent - he or she has no idea of what I'm holding. Of course, you give up some information in that regard by betting after the flop, so your opponent at least now knows you're not afraid of an Ace or King, but it's tough to put you on a hand, which may explain his "information" raise. Of course, he may not be raising in an effort to gain information, but because he believes his hand to be the best at the moment, which - if he has a set - is true. In a situation like this, I always remember that old saying, "Expect anything in an unraised pot." Be afraid, be very afraid.
3. How well do I know my opponent's game? Playing mostly online, I don't typically face a lot of "regulars" at the table, but I do take a lot of notes on my opponents, even though I may never see them again. I suppose it's fair to say that 99% of the time I have very little information about my opponent, other than what I've noticed at the table we're both at for the moment. But even a little information may be helpful; is my opponent "loose and aggressive"? If so, I might well be facing a bluff. If my perception is that the opponent is a tight player - he seldom "limps" into pots, only raises when he does come in, etc., then I'll give him or her more credit toward having a set. You get the general idea, but it's still a guess most of the time.
4. From what position did I enter the pot? If my opening raise came from Early Position, I'm more inclined to believe my opponent would call only with a larger pocket pair, like 9s or higher. Why nines? While it's really an arbitrary selection, 9-9 is the lowest of the "high" pairs, so I use them as a sort of line of demarcation (haven't used the term since 6th grade social studies). In a deck of cards, there are 13 "ranks", which begin with 2s and run up to Aces. The median card is 8; half the cards are higher and half are lower. Go ahead, run through them to be sure; I'll wait.
Got it now? As you now know, six cards lose to an 8 and six cards beat an 8. So, for our purposes here, an 8 can be considered the "average." That's why I consider 9s or higher to be above-average cards. Many players draw the line at 10s, but it basically amounts to the same thing - most will fold small pairs to a raise from Early Position. However, if I raise with the same hand from Late Position, most players will call with any pair, high or low. That's why my position is so important in solving this problem.
5. What are the dynamics of the flop? This is often referred to as the "texture" of the flop, but it all relates to which hands were helped and which hands were not helped by the three community cards. In our example, the flop was A, K, 7 rainbow, which means no player flopped a Straight or a Flush. That said, it's still possible our opponent called with Q-J and has an inside Straight draw. It's "inside" because only a 10 completes it and I would really be surprised if he or she were to go all-in with such a hand. Of course, it's not impossible; the player could be making a "semi-bluff", with the idea of either winning the pot right now or hitting the needed 10 on the turn or river. If the opponent is short-stacked and somewhat desperate, that may well be the case, but it's not likely if our opponent has an average or better chip count. Still, you cannot completely dismiss the idea because an all-in bet guarantees that our opponent will get to see both of the remaining cards. Even so, the odds are greatly against him.
(Source: GameMaster)
