These questions help me to "sniff out" a set, but I can never be 100% sure of course. That being the case, I have to then move on and see if I can win the hand. In that regard, I keep these questions in mind as the hand proceeds:
6. Can I ultimately make a hand that will beat my opponent's suspected hand? This is a critical question to ask yourself in situations like these. If you call the raise, is there a reasonable probability of making a hand that will beat a set? By "reasonable", I mean something in the 20-25% probability range, not runner-runner flush or straight cards that have a 4 or 5 % probability at best. In our example here, I can make a Full House if another A or K falls, but it also makes a Full House or better for our opponent if he does, indeed, have a set. If he has a set of 7s and another K falls, that's great for us; he'll have Sevens full of Kings and we'll have Kings full of Aces. However, if he has a set of 7s and another 7 falls, he'll have quad 7s to our Full House And so on. While holding two-pair, the probability of making a Full House with two cards to come is 16.5%. If we have three to a Flush on the flop, the probability of making a "backdoor" Flush is 6.5%. So, if we were to go all-in, which guarantees we get to see two more cards, the probability of us making a hand that can beat a set is about 23%.
7. How secure is my opponent's hand? What I mean by this is, if our opponent really does have a set, will he or she consider it to be all but unbeatable or something less than that? This is that part of the game where perception is more important than what the actual cards are. Most players with a set will approach it in a straight-forward manner, consequences be damned. They'll either re-raise as the player in the example did (although a more experienced player probably won't go all-in unless s/he's short-stacked) or they'll just call, with the idea of extracting more $$$ from us, which is probably not the best play if the dynamics of the flop allow for a Straight or Flush draw. The flop of A, K, 7 rainbow doesn't really imply that, so a call by our opponent rather than a re-raise is entirely possible. If that is how she or he responds, we're not going to think "set" right away, although we do have to keep it in mind. But, by just calling our opponent has opened the door to one more possibility for us. As I said earlier, perception matters almost as much as reality, at least until the last card is dealt. At this point, we know the best hand our opponent can be holding is a set of Aces, so we might get the opportunity to convince him that the Aces are no good. Because he only called, we get to see another card.
8. Can I convince my opponent that his hand is no good? A big part of "advanced" poker is not just the ability to read your opponent's hand; it's also the ability to make your opponent think the hand you have is somewhat different than what you're actually holding - or not. Let me explain. If you're holding a nut Straight Flush after the flop, the only way you can hope to make any $$$ on it is by convincing your opponents that you don't hold this monster of a hand. Consequently, you'll probably check or just call if someone bets into you. And I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone else does bet because the odds of anyone flopping a Flush are over 120 to 1 against, let alone flopping a Straight Flush. On the other side of the coin, you might have a hand that can be rather easily outdrawn, so you'd like to convince your opponents that drawing is futile, which you can do by making it too expensive in the form of a big bet. Here, you're all but showing your hand to the table, so you can see that being deceptive about what you hold isn't the only strategy. There will also be times when you want to convince your opponents that you hold a much stronger hand than you actually have, which is, of course, a bluff.
Going back to our original example, if our opponent just calls, we get to see another card. If that card is, say, a Queen, the board will now be A, K, 7, Q, which implies a Straight if we can convince our opponent we raised from Early Position with 10, J. I really doubt we'll be able to do that, but if the turn card is a 10, making the board A, K, 7, 10, can we convince our opponent that we raised with A-J? Of course, I have no absolute answer here because every hand will be different, but I do know this: Whether or not our opponent does have a set, the 10 on the turn very likely didn't help him and it certainly didn't hurt us; in fact we now have an inside Straight draw and maybe even a Flush draw, (which our opponent could also have.) A check by us at this point gives no information to our opponent other than making us look weak, so it could engender a big bet by him. A bet by us at this point basically implies we've improved our hand or we're bluffing. We already know we're not bluffing because we do hold top two-pair, but that doesn't beat a set, so a bet by us will likely be called, if not raised. Either a check or a bet can imply that we've made a Straight; it's all in how our opponent perceives us. If we're viewed as a player that likes to "trap", then checking is a powerful move. If we're viewed as a straight-forward player who plays only the cards we've got, then a bet is powerful. Not surprisingly, if we're viewed as a bluffer, then a bet won't have a lot of credibility with our opponent.
Again, there's no correct answer here, but if I have to choose one play, it's to bet and I much prefer to go all-in. Sure, if our opponent has a set I'm toast unless I can fill the inside straight or make a Full House, but there are several factors in my favor at this point. First of all, I do have top two-pair and that's nothing to sneeze at. Secondly, my opponent might be on a Straight draw, so an all-in bet will likely make it a very expensive call for him and third, I might hit a Straight or Full House. But even more importantly than all of those, I might be convincing my opponent that I hold something better than his set (if that's what he has.) Remember, I raised pre-flop, so I might have A-A or K-K and the only way he'd know anything different would be if he held them himself. I'll just have to take that chance. After all, luck is still a factor we cannot completely remove from the game and that's what makes it so interesting.
(Source: GameMaster)
